In the face of increasingly volatile demographic trends the Government’s household projections should not be  used as housebuilding targets if we are to safeguard the countryside from unnecessary development.

That is the view of the Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) [1] which is today, Wednesday, publishing a report which critiques these projections and asserts that planning for housing should not be based on the shaky assumption that past trends will continue [2].

CPRE instead calls for an objective-led approach to delivering housing which takes greater account of environmental impacts and is more responsive to changing circumstances.

Fiona Howie, Head of Planning and Regions for CPRE, said:

‘With a population that is expected to continue to grow we have to use land more efficiently. We need to build more homes, especially affordable housing [3], but we also need to devote space on our densely populated island to producing food and energy, while still allowing people to access and enjoy open and unspoilt countryside.’

‘Planning for housing is fraught with uncertainties. Current projections fail to take adequate account of wider considerations, such as changing economic conditions and the effect these can have on migration levels. That is why they should not be used as rigid targets. Recently published data shows, for example, that net international migration from eight central and eastern European countries fell from 81,000 in 2007 to 19,000 in 2008 [4]. When planning for housing such changes need to be taken into consideration.’

Fiona Howie concluded:

‘We need a fresh approach to planning for housing at the local, regional and national level; an approach which is flexible and responsive to evidence of environmental impacts and volatile demographic trends.’

– END –
NOTES FOR EDITORS

1. CPRE, the Campaign to Protect Rural England, is a charity which promotes the beauty, tranquillity and diversity of rural England. We advocate positive solutions for the long-term future of the countryside. Founded in 1926, we have 60,000 supporters and a branch in every county. President: Bill Bryson. Patron: Her Majesty The Queen. www.cpre.org.uk

2. Housing the Future: An analysis of the Government’s household projections and their use in planning for housing is available from our press office on request (contact details below). The report explains the nature of the Government’s household projections and considers their limitations. Bearing these in mind it considers how these projections should be used by the planning system to determine housing requirements. The report also briefly considers whether there are, or should be, any limits to household and housing growth.

3. CPRE launched 2026 - A Vision for the Countryside in May, setting out a positive and optimistic vision for the future of the beautiful English countryside in 2026, the charity’s centenary year. The Vision’s key issues include: affordable, high quality housing; urban regeneration; Green Belts; better planning; green energy; local food and farming; quality of life; light pollution and valuing the countryside as a national asset.  For further information go to www.cpre.org.uk/campaigns/environment/2026-a-vision-for-the-countryside.

4. Based on figures released by the Office for National Statistics in November 2009. See specifically Table 2.01a - Long term International Migration 1991 – 2008. Available at http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15053. The figures relate to the A8 countries which are the eight central and eastern European countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004; Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

Fiona Howie (Head of Planning)
020 7981 2800 (switchboard)
020 7981 2864 (direct)
07812 539950 (mobile)

Neil Sinden (Director – Policy)
020 7981 2800 (switchboard)
020 7981 2831 (direct)
07739 332795 (mobile)

Claire Norman (Press Officer)
020 7981 2800 (switchboard)
020 7981 2880 (press office)
07739 332 796 (out of hours)